Financial Market Analysis

December 2023 As the two wars continue the main financial conversation has turned to when interest rates will be cut, the market says soon, the Central Bankers say no way. Interest rates remain on hold in the US and the UK but rates are predicted to be cut next year, the consensus being by at…

November 2023 The War in Gaza has affected markets by reinforcing current trends as pointed out by Buttonwood in the EconomistInterest rates in the US and the UK did not rise this month The yield curve (a forecasting tool that predicts future interest rates) is predicting “higher rates for longer” and has been for some…

October 2023 The factors affecting the world economy and investment performanceThe yield curve (a forecasting tool that predicts future interest rates) is predicting “higher rates for longer” and has been for some time but it seems the market has just caught on to this and this is starting to worry investorsThe dollar continues to strengthen…

September 2023 The factors affecting the world economy and investment performance;Persistent inflation;Albeit lower in the US. Higher interest rates on deposits gives depositors more money which they are spending which is feeding persistent inflation as are wage demands;Notwithstanding the above inflation and interest rates may be at their peak. Stagflation possible in the UK.…

August 2023 Inflation is falling in the US, the UK, and globally. UK base rates are now 5.25% pa and set to move higher still. House prices continue to fall an expected reaction to rising interest rates. The clutch of global stocks that were moving higher are showing weakness now and there is definitely a…

July 2023 The rate of Inflation has fallen in the US but not in the UK, and base rates are 5% in the UK and set to move even higher. It seems Andrew Bailey was too late to increase interest rates, which means they must go higher and stay there longer. Interest rates rising means…

June 2023 The global rate of Inflation has fallen at last but not by much, not enough to pause rate rises in the UK but maybe enough to pause rate rises in the US which is a starting point at least. It’s felt by some fund managers that the UK investment market is undervalued and cheap…

May 2023 Inflation continues to be a significant global economic headwind; Consumers seem to think price increases are understandable so are prepared to pay these higher prices, at the moment anyway. Businesses raising profit margins at this time are being accused of something known as "greedflation". Interesting to note inflation peaked at 27% in 1975. Banks…

April 2023 Most markets remain down over the last year. The Nasdaq is down 18% however, European indices are faring well, this confirms investments markets remain tilted towards value rather than growth. Banks are in trouble but fears of a systemic crisis have passed however, the recent problems at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Credit…